Introduction: Why can China be a key market for Polish companies?
Despite the economic downturn and geopolitical tensions, China remains a key market for companies from around the world, including Poland. With an economy worth more than $18 trillion and a population of more than 1.4 billion, the Middle Kingdom offers tremendous opportunities for companies that can understand its complexity and dynamics.
In 2025, China's economy, while struggling with structural challenges, remains the world's second largest consumer market. For Polish companies, this means access to a huge customer base, advanced supply chains and opportunities for collaboration in the area of technological innovation. The 2024 Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index report confirms that China continues to be among the top investment destinations, ranking first among emerging markets.
Moreover, China's strategic initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in which Poland plays the role of a key logistics hub in Central and Eastern Europe, create additional opportunities for Polish exporters and logistics companies. With the globalization of Chinese companies increasingly boldly entering international markets, there are also opportunities for cooperation in third countries.
China economic overview: current trends and forecasts for 2025
China's economy, despite a slowdown from the double-digit growth rates of a decade ago, is maintaining a relatively stable growth rate. China's GDP grew by about 5% in 2024, meeting the government's official target, but forecasts for 2025 are somewhat more cautious, with growth projected at 4.5-5%.
Key indicators of the Chinese economy for 2025 are as follows:
- GDP growth: projected at 4.5-5%, which is still significantly above the growth rate of most developed economies.
- Inflation: remains low, less than 1% in each month of 2024, reflecting consumer caution and control of the money supply.
- Urban unemployment: 5.4% in February 2024, with higher values among young graduates.
- Foreign trade: imports and exports recorded an increase of 5%.
China's economic structure is undergoing a significant transformation. The service sector (the so-called third sector) now accounts for more than 56% of GDP, while industry (the second sector) accounts for about 37% and agriculture (the first sector) for more than 6%. This structure reflects China's long-standing efforts to build an economy based on domestic consumption and services, rather than on exports and infrastructure investment.
China is also continuing to open up its economy, albeit selectively. A visa-free policy for citizens of many countries, including Poland, was introduced in 2024, which is expected to stimulate tourism and business exchanges. At the same time, free trade agreements are being negotiated with more partners, which could create new opportunities for Polish exporters.
A new qualitative production force: the transformation of China's economy
Central to China's current economic strategy is the concept of "Xin Zhiliang Shengchan Li" (新质生产力) - the "New Qualitative Manufacturing Force." The concept, introduced by President Xi Jinping, marks a shift away from a growth model based on cheap labor and mass production toward high-tech, energy-efficient and high value-added industries.
In practice, the "New Quality Production Force" focuses on five key areas:
- Technological innovation: Massive investment in research and development, especially in areas such as artificial intelligence, robotics and biotechnology.
- Digitization of Industry: Implementing Industry 4.0 solutions in traditional manufacturing sectors.
- Low-carbon transition: decarbonizing production and developing green technologies.
- Development of advanced materials: Focusing on materials of the future, such as semiconductors, composites and materials for hydrogen energy.
- Automation and robotization: Replacing human labor with advanced automatic and robotic solutions.
Also important to the transformation is the concept of "Shuang Xunhuan" (双循环) - "Dual Circulation," which involves the parallel promotion of the internal market (internal circulation) and international trade (external circulation), with the internal market to be the main driver of growth.
For Polish companies, this transformation means both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, China is becoming a tougher competitor in high-tech areas, while on the other, new opportunities for cooperation in green technology, digitization or advanced materials are opening up, where Polish companies can offer competitive solutions.
Areas of rapid growth: green economy, AI, NEV and future technology
Despite the general slowdown, some sectors of the Chinese economy are experiencing rapid growth, creating opportunities for foreign companies, including those from Poland. Among the fastest growing areas are:
Green economy
China is a global leader in renewables, with the world's largest installed capacity in photovoltaics(887 GW) and wind power(520 GW). As part of its plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China is investing heavily in low-carbon technologies, energy storage and energy efficiency. In 2025, China's green technology market is estimated at more than $1 trillion, creating huge opportunities for Polish companies in the RES, energy efficiency or closed-loop economy sectors.
Although the clean energy sector grew faster than the economy, its share of GDP declined to 23% in 2024 from 40% in 2023.
Artificial intelligence and digitization
China's AI market is expected to reach about RMB747 billion ($103.31 billion) in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.0%. Chinese AI models such as DeepSeek, Doubao (ByteDance) and Ernie Bot (Baidu) are gaining traction, offering advanced features and customization for the Chinese market. By 2025, China's share of the global AI market is forecast to grow to 20.9%. Polish companies with strong competencies in AI, data analytics or cyber security may find attractive niches here.
Electric vehicles and new mobility
China dominates the global market for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs). China accounts for 76% of global sales of electric cars and plug-in hybrids.
NEV penetration in China is expected to reach 40% by 2024 (graphic below).
Chinese manufacturers such as BYD, NIO and Xpeng are becoming global players, offering vehicles with competitive prices and advanced features. For Polish companies in the electromobility supply chain (components, software, charging infrastructure), this represents an opportunity to enter global value chains.
Advanced robotics and automation
China is the world's largest market for industrial and service robotics, with annual growth exceeding 20%. In 2023, more than 270,000 industrial robots were installed in China. Polish companies specializing in process automation, collaborative robotics or production management systems can find an attractive market in China.
Biotechnology and healthcare
China's aging population (more than 310 million people aged 60+) is generating growing demand for medical services, pharmaceuticals and health technologies. China's healthcare market generated RMB 10 trillion (about $1.5 trillion) in 2021. Polish companies in the fields of biotechnology, telemedicine or medical devices can capitalize on this trend, especially in the context of China's growing interest in diversifying supply chains in the health sector.
Challenges and risks: slowdown in the real estate sector and cautious consumer spending
Despite numerous opportunities, the Chinese economy faces significant challenges that entrepreneurs entering this market should take into account:
Real estate crisis
The real estate sector accounts for about 24% of China's GDP. In 2024, real estate investment fell by more than 10% year-on-year. New home prices in February 2024 in China's 70 cities saw year-on-year declines of 4.8%. The problem is structural - high levels of developer debt, an oversupply of housing, and shifting demographics (shrinking population) indicate that the crisis could last for several more years. This has a negative impact on related industries such as building materials, furniture and appliances.
Cautious consumers
Despite rising disposable incomes, Chinese consumers remain cautious in their spending, as seen in the relatively low growth rate of retail sales (up 3.7% year-on-year in 2024). Uncertainty about the labor market, rising education and healthcare costs, and falling property values are prompting households to increase savings at the expense of consumption. For consumer goods companies, this means adjusting their pricing strategy and putting more emphasis on value for money.
Local debt
Local governments in China are facing huge debts. The International Monetary Fund estimates local government debt at $7-11 trillion. The central government has introduced a series of measures to reduce this debt, including a 6 trillion yuan bond issue in 2024, but the problem remains a significant systemic risk.
Regional inequalities
The development gap between the east coast and the center and west of the country is still significant. GDP per capita in the richest eastern regions (Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong) is even 4-5 times higher than in the poorest western provinces. For Polish companies, this means that they need to carefully analyze regional markets and adapt their strategies to local conditions.
Demographic challenges
China is facing serious demographic challenges. The country's population is shrinking for the third consecutive year, and the percentage of people aged 60+ is growing rapidly, reaching 22% in 2024. The fertility rate remains low at 1.1-1.2, which means that the problem of an aging population will get worse.
Geopolitical tensions
China's relations with the U.S. and EU remain strained, which translates into risks for international business. Export controls, sanctions, tariffs and other trade barriers can affect supply chains and opportunities in the Chinese market.
What does all this mean for Polish companies: where to look for opportunities?
Faced with both opportunities and challenges, Polish companies should adopt a balanced approach to the Chinese market, based on in-depth analysis and strategic planning:
Sectors with the greatest potential for Polish companies
- Food and agri-food products: Chinese consumers value European food for its safety and quality. Milk and dairy products, meat (especially poultry and pork), alcohols and functional foods have great export potential.
- Environmental technologies: Poland has strong competencies in areas such as water and wastewater treatment, environmental monitoring and energy efficiency, which aligns with China's green transformation priorities.
- Medicine and medical devices: China's aging population is generating growing demand for innovative medical solutions, including telemedicine, diagnostics or rehabilitation, where Polish companies can offer competitive products.
- IT services and software: Polish IT companies are known for their high quality and competitive prices, which may be attractive to Chinese partners looking for alternative suppliers amid tensions with the US.
- Smart city solutions: Poland has experience in smart city solutions, such as traffic management systems, monitoring and e-services for residents, which is in line with China's urbanization priorities.
Key strategies for entering the Chinese market
- Strategic partnerships: Working with local partners can significantly facilitate entry into the Chinese market. A partner brings local knowledge, networks, and can help overcome cultural and regulatory barriers.
- Regional focus: Rather than trying to capture the entire huge China market at once, it makes sense to focus on selected regions that best suit the specifics of your product or service.
- Localization and customization: products and services should be tailored to local preferences, customs and regulations. This includes not only translating marketing materials, but a deeper understanding of the needs of Chinese consumers.
- Presence on the Chinese Internet: A successful marketing strategy in China requires a presence in the local digital ecosystem - on platforms such as WeChat, Douyin, RedNote and JD.com, which differ significantly from Western platforms.
- Intellectual property protection: Before entering the Chinese market, it is crucial to secure intellectual property by registering trademarks, patents and other rights in China.
Sources of support for Polish companies
Polish companies interested in the Chinese market can take advantage of a number of support instruments:
- Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH): Offers consulting services, support in finding partners, and organizes economic missions to China.
- Foreign Trade Offices (ZBH): Polish posts in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Chengdu provide direct support to Polish exporters.
- European Union Programs: Initiatives such as the EU SME Center and Enterprise Europe Network offer a range of services to support expansion into the Chinese market.
- Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK): Offers financial instruments to support exports, including export credit insurance.
- Chambers of Commerce: The Polish-Chinese Chamber of Commerce and the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China offer networking, market publications and advice.
Summary
China in 2025 remains a key market for Polish companies, despite the challenges of economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions and internal structural problems. The transformation of China's economy into a "New Qualitative Manufacturing Force" and the "Dual Circulation" strategy are creating new opportunities in areas such as the green economy, advanced technologies and services for an aging population.
Polish companies that make the effort to understand the peculiarities of the Chinese market, adapt their offerings to local conditions and build the right partnerships can succeed in this huge and dynamic market. The key, however, is a long-term approach, based on in-depth analysis and flexible response to rapidly changing conditions.
The article uses data from China Mega Report 2025.
